Science, More or Less

The Problem Newton Got Wrong
May 26, 2020 – 13:14
Isaac Newton was right about everything from gravity to the calculus, but he didn’t quite get it right on dice and probability.

The Newton-Pepys Problem represents Isaac Newton’s only documented foray into probability. Samuel Pepys sent him a letter asking whether it would be more likely to roll one six in 6 dice, two sixes in 12 dice, or three sixes in 18 dice. In terms of computing the answer, we’ve got it pretty easy in the 21st century, whether we do it the long way, whether we apply binomial distribution, or just run a Monte Carlo simulation. To us, it’s a relatively basic problem in probability.

But Newton had to work it all out himself, and as he did that, he missed a few things. He just… didn’t get it totally right even though his numbers were accurate. The *real* Newton-Pepys Problem is deciding how much that even matters, and the answer gives us insight into the complex relationship between math, numbers, and the realities of human thought.

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Biden: Lead Lemming

Trump energy policy: More of it.
Democrat energy policy: Less of it.

Joe Biden Pledges Renewed War On Coal:
“No One Is Going To Build Another Coal Plant In America”

GOP War Room – Dec 9, 2019 – 0:45
Former Vice President Joe Biden pledges a renewed war on coal by saying “no one is going to build another coal plant in America” during an interview with NPR’s Rachel Martin taped on 12/6/2019.

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They’re Always Totally Wrong

It’s really quite amazing if you think about it: they’re consistently, persistently, dramatically, emphatically, absolutely and positively wrong about everything.

Whatever they say we need to do, we probably need to do the exact opposite.

Julián Castro: We Need to ‘Phase Out’ Nuclear Energy

Washington Free Beacon – Oct 4, 2019

Notice Julie compares wind and coal in Texas. You’d think that Texas boy would know it’s not coal, but OIL he needs to be comparing.